Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections.
Following the global economic and financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, SenegalÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s economy began to pick up in 2010, despite the crisis in the electricity sector, as a result of the global recovery and the economic policies implemented by the Senegalese authorities to revive economic activity. These policies included the governmentÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s efforts to clear its domestic debt, which badly affected the private sector in 2009. The economic recovery in 2010 was mainly due to improvements in the main sectors of the economy.
The primary sector accounted for 14.9% of GDP in 2010 and this figure is forecast to fall slightly to 14.7% in 2011 and 14.4% in 2012. The growth rate for this sector registered an increase of 4.5% in 2010 compared to the 10% in 2009. This slowdown in the rate of growth is a result of the results recorded by the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sector. The primary sectorÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s contribution to GDP in 2009 was formed by agriculture (8% of GDP), livestock and hunting (4%), fisheries (1.7%), and forestry (1%). The sector remains vulnerable to exogenous factors, these being the weather conditions and volatile global commodity prices.
Industrial or export crops (especially groundnuts and cotton) grew by an estimated 5.4% in 2010, and growth of 4.7% and 4% is projected for 2011 and 2012. Groundnut production increased from 731Ã‚Â 000Ã‚Â tonnes in 2009 to 1.032Ã‚Â million tonnes during the 2009/10Ã‚Â season and is expected to reach 1.064 million tonnes in 2010/11, representing a 3% increase.
Nevertheless, the groundnut sector is going through a difficult period because of the low prices paid to producers. On the ground, production is harvested and delivered to the oil manufacturers by the licensed private marketing agents, known asÃ‚Â opÃƒÂ©rateurs privÃƒÂ©s stockeurs, who are responsible for obtaining financing from banks. The producer price of groundnuts is set following consultation between the oil manufacturers and a national committee for stakeholders in the groundnut industry, theÃ‚Â ComitÃƒÂ© national interprofessionnel de lÃ¢â‚¬â„¢arachideÃ‚Â (CNIA). For the 2009/10Ã‚Â season, the CNIA set a price of XOFÃ‚Â 165 (CFA Franc BCEAO) per kilo. This included a state subsidy of XOFÃ‚Â 45.
The low producer price was underlined by a recent study undertaken by agronomists, which found that the farm-gate price for the 2009/10Ã‚Â season should have been XOFÃ‚Â 192, meaning a loss of XOFÃ‚Â 27Ã‚Â per kilo for producers. For the 2010/11Ã‚Â season, the price set by the CNIA remains at XOFÃ‚Â 165, with the state subsidy reduced to XOFÃ‚Â 15 per kilo. In addition to the low price, the season started late.
Dysfunctional marketing compounds the farmersÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ problems, who are sometimes leading farmers to sell their harvest at much lower prices than the set price of XOFÃ‚Â 165 (a kilo of groundnuts at local markets costs XOFÃ‚Â 90). Cotton production fell in the 2009/10Ã‚Â season to 18Ã‚Â 500Ã‚Â tonnes, down from 26Ã‚Â 256Ã‚Â tonnes in 2008/09. The 2008/09Ã‚Â season also saw falls in the production of cassava (Ã‚Â-71%), cowpeas (-Ã‚Â31%) and sesame (Ã‚Â38%). During the 2010/11 campaign the decline in production of cassava, cowpeas and sesame has continued (respectively,Ã‚Â -18.1%, -17.5% and -91%). However, cotton production has recorded a turnaround, with an increase of 26% over the 2009/10 season.
Regarding horticulture, fruit production rose by 11% in 2009 and vegetable production rose by 8.3%. Through the Ã¢â‚¬Å“horteÃ¢â‚¬Â plan, Senegal implemented a policy aimed at increasing exports from 35Ã‚Â 000Ã‚Â tonnes in 2010 to 50Ã‚Â 000Ã‚Â tonnes by 2012 and 75Ã‚Â 000Ã‚Â tonnes by 2015.
Livestock farmingÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s contribution to GDP, which was 4% in 2009, has strengthened by 0.2 percentage points in 2010 and is expected to remain the same in 2011. In 2010 the sector grew by 3.7%, with milk production increasing by 5% and poultry farming growing by 4%. The good levels of milk production began in 2009, when 166.7Ã‚Â million litres were produced (100% of the projected production). The high production is the result of an appropriate artificial insemination policy and the development of peri-urban dairy farms. Growth of 3.5% and 3.8% is predicted for 2011 and 2012.
The fisheries sector saw growth of 10% in 2010, up from 2.6% in 2009. Projected growth for 2011 and 2012 is 2.1% and 2.3% respectively.
In the secondary sector, the marked recovery begun in 2009 has not continued in 2010 mainly because of the deteriorating business environment largely due to the difficulties in the energy sector. In 2010, the estimated growth was 2.9% (compared to 4.8% in 2009) and the projected growth for 2011 and 2012 is 5.1% and 6.0%. This upward trend is the result of growth in branches such as the manufacture of chemical products, construction, construction materials and metallurgy.
After negative growth of 18.1% in 2008, the manufacture of chemical products grew strongly in 2009 (+15.3%) and 2010 (5.0%). This strong growth was a result of the revitalisation of the sector following the recapitalisation ofÃ‚Â Industries chimiques du SÃƒÂ©nÃƒÂ©galÃ‚Â (ICS) in 2008, when the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Limited acquired 85% of ICS stock. The growth rate of phosphoric acid production, one of the main activities of ICS, thus increases by 10.3% in 2010.
Following a weak performance in 2009, with a 4.4% fall in activity, the construction sector recovered in 2010, growing by 5.8%. There are optimistic projections of 7% growth in 2011 and 7.5% growth in 2012. The benefits of the recovery in 2010 include the continuation of the construction of the Dakar-Diamniadio toll motorway and Blaise Diagne International Airport, and in particular, the implementation of the 2010Ã‚Â-15 five-year road infrastructure programme, with a budget of XOFÃ‚Â 1.6Ã‚Â trillion
This upturn in the construction sector enabled good results in the construction materials sector. Furthermore, foreign demand for cement grew substantially in 2010, with exports increasing by 50.6% during the first six months, compared to 2009. There was a similar upward trend in the metallurgy industry, also as a result of the recovery of the construction sector, with growth of 22.7% in 2010 following a 0.4% contraction in 2009.
Mining and quarrying recorded growth of 6.8% in 2010 following the exceptional boom of 54.9% growth in 2009 as a result of the development of phosphate mining to accompany the growth in the production of chemical products. Mining and quarrying were also stimulated by the establishment of the state phosphates firm SERPM (SociÃƒÂ©tÃƒÂ© dÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÂ©tude et de rÃƒÂ©alisation des phosphates de Matam), which to support the success of the GOANA agricultural drive (Grande offensive agricole pour la nourriture et lÃ¢â‚¬â„¢abondance) produced 20Ã‚Â 000Ã‚Â tonnes of soft natural phosphates in its first year in 2008. In 2009, it increased its production to 25Ã‚Â 000Ã‚Â tonnes (GOANAÃ‚Â 2). In 2010, the SERPM produced and manufactured a high-quality compound granular fertiliser in accordance with the recommendations of the Ministry of Agriculture to meet the specific needs of Senegalese agriculture in order to complete GOANAÃ‚Â 3.
In the energy sector, growth was 5.4%, reflecting the upward movement of water production (5.2%) and that of the electricity suppliers from SENELEC (including GTI) of 35%. SENELECÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s production in turn contracted by 4.5% due to outdated production facilities combined with cash flow problems from the company. In the period 2008/09, the state injected XOFÃ‚Â 139Ã‚Â billion to recapitalise the state energy firm SENELEC and XOFÃ‚Â 140Ã‚Â billion to keep prices stable. These real efforts could not avoid the usage of frequent power cuts, which are crippling the countryÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s economic activity. The situation reached a critical point in July 2010, when the use of adulterated fuel severely damaged several machines from the distribution grid. The numerous power outages have caused protests in the suburbs of Dakar and in several cities in the country. To permanently resolve the electricity problem in Senegal, the government has implemented an emergency plan called Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Plan TakkalÃ¢â‚¬Â whose implementation should be spread over the period 2011-15.
The oil refining industry shrank in both 2009 and 2010, by 16.2% and 13.8% respectively. The fall in activity was caused by the problems encountered by the refinery companyÃ‚Â SociÃƒÂ©tÃƒÂ© africaine de raffinageÃ‚Â (SAR): volatile international prices, low storage capacity, problems in the logistics of receipt and offload at the port in Dakar.
The meat and fish processing and preservation sector also contracted in 2010, by 8.7%, as certain companies ceased operations because they did not comply with the sanitary and phytosanitary standards imposed by European countries.
Finally, cotton ginning and textile manufacturing activity also declined in 2010 (Ã‚Â-26.2%), having also declined in 2008 (Ã‚Â-5.7%) and 2009 (Ã‚Â-1.1%). The declines in 2009 and 2010 were due to the drastic fall in cotton production, as well as fraud and smuggling. In total, the secondary-sector share of GDP rose from 20.4% in 2009 to 20.8% in 2010. According to projections, the share will rise to 21.4% in 2011 and 21.9% in 2012.
A recovery was expected in the tertiary sector in 2010 (+4.9%) after the slowdown in 2009 (+0.8%) and 2008 (+3.2%). This good performance was due to the increased growth in trade, which expanded by 4.1% in 2010, up from 2.2% growth in 2009, notwithstanding the slowdown in growth of commercial activities (1.4% in 2010 compared to 2.2% in 2009) following a contraction of imports of 1.5% in real terms.
Other branches that stimulated growth in the tertiary sector in 2010 include the post and telecommunication services (9.3% against 2.3% in 2009), transport (11.4% against -6.4% in 2009), accommodation and catering (14.2% against -6.9% in 2009) and financial services (13.4% against 0.9%). Telecommunications benefited from a buoyant mobile telephony boosted by the sales of discounted phone cards, often carried out by the operators. The accommodation and catering industry benefited from the economic recovery in Europe and from the organisation of major events in Dakar, such as the inauguration of the Monument of the African Renaissance and the World Festival of Negro Arts (FESMAN).
Nevertheless, the latest statistics confirm the importance of the tertiary sector to the Senegalese economy. The sectorÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s share of GDP was 46.8% in 2009, and at 46.2% in 2010. It is projected to remain stable in 2011 and 2012, around 46.1%.
In 2010, there was a marked recovery in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which grew by 5.3%. In 2009, GFCF contracted by 7.4% due to a 12.7% fall in private investment as a result of the global economic and financial crisis. In 2010, the rise in GFCF will have concerned both the public and private sector thanks to the governmentÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s major efforts to clear its domestic debt and to the global economic recovery. These conditions caused investment, measured as GFCF, Ã‚Â to rise from 23.7% in 2009 to 23.9% in 2010.
Final consumption was estimated at 92.4% of GDP in 2010, down from 92.8% in 2009. At the same time, the domestic-savings rate is estimated to have risen from 7.2% in 2009 to 7.6% in 2010. According to projections for 2011, final consumption should represent 90.7% of GDP while the domestic-savings rate equals 9.3% of GDP. For final consumption, this represents a projected rate of growth of 4.1% in 2011, compared to 3.8% in 2010. The main reason for this positive trend is private consumption, the growth rate of which is expected to rise from 4.1% in 2010 to 4.3% in 2011. In real terms, domestic demand is estimated to have risen by 4.2% in 2010, compared with growth of 0.7% in 2009, thus reflecting the recovery in economic activity.
External demand, meanwhile, has been characterised by a decrease of imports of 1.5% in real terms in 2010 compared to an increase of 0.6% in 2009. Ã‚Â Equally, imports as a share of GDP decreased from 43.1% in 2009 to 39.9% in 2010. The projected share for 2011 is 39.1%. On the contrary, exports as a share of GDP rose by 7% in 2010, up from 2.9% in 2009. This upward trend was thanks to sales of cement, petroleum products and phosphoric acid stimulated by the recovery in the performance of ICS. As a share of GDP, exports rose slightly from 23.2% in 2009 to 24.2% in 2010.
Figures for 2010 are estimates; for 2011 and later are projections.